A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
